I’ve counted more than twenty major disruptive events – ‘black swans’ – over the past 20 years. That’s an average of more than one a year. Hurricanes, terror attacks, earthquakes, disease, financial meltdown, droughts and floods. Constant calamity has become normal. Such events don’t all have the same cataclysmic effect, but as 2020 shows, they can be dramatic, with the power to eliminate vast sectors of the business landscape. It’s possible that much will now change about life, business and the global economy. This is the time to think what might change, and how it will affect your own business.
Conventional strategy
You may have come across terms like vision, mission and values. Perhaps you’ve seen Porter’s grid for evaluating competitive positioning. These approaches were devised in times of relative stability. Uncertainty and chaos demand a totally different approach. For example, the concept of ‘strategic drift’ recognises that an organisation’s business offering may drift out of sync with a changing marketplace if it does not continually adapt. Is the market changing now? You bet it is! The question is: Are you? Instead of thinking “How do I sell more of my wares?”, rather try “What will people in my networks be needing in three months time?” It may lead you to something completely different.
Future proof your business
Another vital tool is 360o scanning. Only by constantly assessing what’s going on around you can you hope to anticipate what’s coming next and adapt in good time. Remember Darwin: adaptation is a survival mechanism (which, by the way, suggests that ‘sustainability’ may be unattainable without it). Scenario planning is yet another approach which aims to characterise possible alternative futures and consider appropriate risk and contingency strategies.
We saw it coming
In 2019, the topic at the top of the agenda was climate change. Everybody was talking about. But businesses seemed slow to take action. In spite of damaging floods across the UK and terrifying forest fires in Australia and Brazil, the threat seemed too distant. Viral pandemics too we’ve seen before. The World Health Organisation had even warned that a serious outbreak was just a matter of time. But virtually no-one, including governments and health services, took any significant mitigating measures. Which is why we’re currently in lockdown, millions of jobs being lost and businesses closing left right and centre.
Silver lining?
The comfort zone is behind us, ahead only uncertainty. The light at the end of the tunnel may seem far away but, for those who seize this opportunity to plan ahead, think creatively and do things differently, that brave new world could be an exciting place. From adversity comes opportunity, from uncertainty comes innovation. If you’re running a business you hope will rebound, you might want to take time now to review and reposition it. If you’re afraid your business may have died, you’ll need an injection of new ideas and enthusiasm to relaunch yourself. And if you think – as I do – that the post-virus world might be a different one, then for sure you need someone to share thoughts on what it might look like.
How may I help you?
I’ve often been able to foresee future trends and take advantage of them to minimise threats and capitalise on opportunities. Please get in touch for a complimentary discussion: ss@steveshelley.org 0754 888 5576.